This post is sort of my thinking out loud about whether or not I should get the Covid vaccine ahead of this summer that was approved last year as being appropriate to get twice a year by the CDC—once in the fall along with the flu shot and once to protect against the Covid summer surge that some experts argue has been happening every summer since the pandemic onset.
The trouble is that the dominant subvariant is no longer the JN.1 or KP.3.11. The currently dominant circulating bug is LP.8.1 according to the CDC Nowcast chart.
And what confuses me is that one expert still recommends getting the September 2023 updated vaccine, but recommends getting the “bivalent booster.”
And a recent article from the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) says that a preprint study (not yet peer-reviewed) says the current Covid vaccine was only 53% effective against hospitalization and 39% medically attended Covid-19. Most patients got the vaccine targeting the XBB.1.5 variant. I think that’s related somehow to the KP.2 variant. I have a vague memory of hearing about the XBB.1.5 during the CDC meeting in September 2023.
I’m a retired psychiatrist, not a retired virologist. The information available to the public seems confusing to me and I imagine I’m not the only one so affected.
The CDC is recommending the 2024-2025 Covid-19 vaccines, which target the JN.1 variant, which is now 0% of circulating variants on the list. But I’m not sure whether the current vaccines would be as protective against the different variants now dominant.
The CDC April indicators show downward trends for test positivity, ER visits, hospitalizations, and deaths.
On the other hand, an August 2024 article from Johns Hopkins warns that Covid-19 rates have consistently risen in July-August risen since 2020. The author says that it’s still unclear whether Covid-19 will continue to have dual seasonality. Other factors that affect this in addition to the emergence of more transmissible variants are human behavior, such as staying in air-conditioned spaces more and traveling.
My big question is should an old guy get the 2024-2025 Covid-19 vaccine or just wait and see, especially in light of the difficult political situation with HHS sounding like it might require new, placebo-controlled trials of some vaccines before “tweaking” them to target more current variants—which could take several months.
But it doesn’t look like there’s a plan to tweak the 2024-2025 Covid-19 vaccine in any case. I’m probably worrying too much, but I’m on the fence. I’m already too good at procrastinating.
Go Retire Psychiatrist 